Opinion / Editorial

Illarionov: Russians can reach Moldova. „They could invade Gagauzia to advance towards Transnistria”

The big war is just around the corner. There is talk that the Kremlin is resorting to yet another wave of mobilisations in the coming days, and that in order to deprive Ukraine of Western arms supplies, Putin could strike from the north, from Belarusian territory, along Ukraine’s border with Poland, towards Lviv.

Another blow, to counter supplies through Romania, could be struck in the Bugev, a region with a complex ethnic composition and least loyal to Kiev. And extending the invasion to the Gagauz autonomy and the Transnistrian area of Moldova could lead to Chisinau becoming a vassal of the Kremlin.

The views belong to Andrei Illarionov, a former adviser to the Russian president, according to Ukrlife.TV.

“Nothing more than a hypothesis, but similar schemes were also applied by the Red Army in World War II, in Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014,” the expert argued his speculations.

Illarionov assumes that one of Ukraine’s main military supply arteries runs through the Ukrainian Bugev in the southwest of Odessa region. This district, between the Prut, Danube and Dniester rivers, says the expert, “has a complicated ethnic composition with the lowest level of pro-Ukrainian disposition and borders Gagauzia, a territorial autonomy within the Republic of Moldova, where Putin’s support level is 90-99 percent and which geographically joins Russian-controlled Transnistria.”

“Under these circumstances, it is theoretically possible to admit the possibility of a Russian disengagement operation in the Bugev, located relatively far from Ukraine’s centres of resistance and lacking, I assume, sufficient defence capabilities. From here, Gagauzia could be invaded in order to advance towards Transnistria. Depending on the situation, this could also be used to try to change power in Moldova. We know that such an attempt was made last year. And the new government in Moldova could put an end to any aid to Ukraine via Romania and Moldova.”

Illarionov said that the scenarios might seem fantastic, exaggerated, “but this may be the way of thinking that the Russian military headquarters can be guided by. Roughly the same schemes were applied in 2008 in Georgia,” he said.

Referring to the eventual success of the “pincer” operation by attacking Ukraine from the north and south, Russia would take over the entire neighbouring country and would no longer be acting on a limited portion of the front, as it was on 24 February. “But all this is just supposition, which, God willing, may not come true,” the expert concluded.

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