Located in the borderlands between Russia and the European Union, Moldova held an election over the weekend. It has become part of another “geostrategic competition between Brussels and Moscow, with Russia determined not to let the country slip away from its influence,” writes Judy Dempsey at Carnegie Europe.
Despite a first-place finish by the pro-Russian Socialist Party, “three pro-European political parties appeared to have won enough votes in a weekend election to control Moldova’s Parliament,” reports David M. Herszenhorn for The New York Times.
The elections happened “at a time of major regional and domestic tensions,” Victor Chirila says at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and annexation of Crimea have exploded regional peace and security. And Moldovans fear the Ukrainian scenario could be replicated in their country.”
Indeed, observers say there is good reason for the trepidation. Ms. Dempsey notes that a big factor for the close vote “is Russia’s increasing meddling in Moldova.” She points to the region of Transnistria, “where Russian-backed leaders have for several years been trying to break away from Moldova.”
Mr. Herszenhorn says that Transnistria “declared independence in 1990 and was the subject of a military conflict in 1992. Russian troops have long been stationed in Transnistria as peacekeeping forces.”
Ms. Dempsey adds that “Russia is also meddling in the southeastern region of Gagauzia, which is home to 200,000 Turkic-speaking inhabitants. Analysts suggest that the community has become increasingly pro-Russian as the Kremlin has openly supported its calls for more autonomy, if not independence from Moldova.”
Igor Dodon, the leader of the Socialist Party, was endorsed by Vladimir V. Putin, “and received heavy support during the campaign from Russian state television,” which is viewed throughout Moldova, writes Robert Coalson at Radio Free Europe.
Mr. Chirila also notes that Russia has increased economic and political pressure on Moldova, pointing out that “Russia has embargoed Moldova’s wine, fruit, and vegetable exports on bogus pretexts.” He adds: “President Vladimir Putin is openly meddling in Moldova’s election campaign by supporting the Socialist Party of Moldova,” which campaigned on slogans like “Moldova with Russia.”
But now, observers say, it’s time for the European Union to step up. “If it is serious about giving the Republic of Moldova a European perspective,” Robert Schwartz writes at Deutsche Welle, “it must give the government a clear date for the possible integration of the country into the E.U.”
Moldova “will lose an estimated 100 million euros this year alone as a result of the Russian trade boycott,” Mr. Schwartz says. “Until now, Moldovan producers have found it hard to develop new markets within the EU. Opening up these markets would be a first step towards alleviating the situation.”
Yet as Vladimir Soloviev writes at Foreign Policy, any integration may face obstacles beyond Moscow. “Moldova’s leaders do not genuinely embrace ‘European’ values despite their professed allegiance to Europe,” he argues. “The political sphere, judiciary, and media in Moldova are monopolized by a small group of individuals who use political power to advance their own interests. This ambiguity is just one of the reasons why the idea of E.U. integration has become less and less popular.”
As Mr. Chirila says, “Society is increasingly divided over the direction Moldova’s future development should take.”
Yet as Mr. Schwartz emphasizes, most potential political flash points, especially in and around Transnistria, involve Russia: He notes the Russian soldiers stationed in that region, despite a commitment Russia made in 1999 to withdraw them. “Many Moldovans fear that the conflict in and around Transnistria could flare up again as a result of the crisis in Ukraine,” he says.
Robert Kaplan also views Russian interference as a focal point, as he wrote this summer at Real Clear World (via Stratfor): “Moscow’s strategy is about taking over countries from within. In this battle, it is precisely during the quiet periods, when an issue like Ukraine drifts off the front pages because of the Middle East, for example, that we should be worried. And remember that weak democracies can be more useful to Russia than strong dictatorships.”
In Moldova, he wrote, corruption is an “overwhelming fact of political life,” so that questions of nationality are prominent. “Moldova’s very identity is still somewhat an issue,” he added.
Of course, Russian efforts to expand its sphere have been popping up in several parts of Eastern Europe, most recently in the Western Balkans, as Ms. Dempsey notes at Euromaidan Press. “This meddling threatens to undermine the stability of the region,” she writes.
She concludes, on Moldova, that its “future stability is not a foregone conclusion. This time around, the E.U. cannot afford to be caught napping — as it was over Ukraine.”
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